Oddsmakers have taken notice. The Patriots, who made nine Super Bowl appearances with Brady at quarterback, have watched their odds drop to win the Super Bowl and the AFC championship in 2020.
Sporting News sorts out the multiple impacts of Brady’s free-agency decision for bettors next season.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds and betting trends from Sports Insider
Super Bowl 2021 odds after Tom Brady leaves Patriots
The Patriots’ Super Bowl odds took a big hit with Brady’s departure, according to Odds Shark.
Here is what BetOnline’s Super Bowl odds looked like in the aftermath of Brady’s announcement:
Odds to win Super Bowl 55
Knowing these trends, the Patriots could be a good value pick given Bill Belichick is still the head coach and their quarterback plan is wide open.
As for Brady’s potential landing spots, it’s not a bad to idea to get the Buccaneers and Chargers now before those odds change if he signs at either one of those places.
MORE: Breaking down the Patriots’ best Tom Brady replacements
Patriots’ AFC championship odds without Tom Brady
The AFC championship odds did not change as much. New England still is third behind Kansas City and Baltimore.
Odds to win AFC championship
The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and won the Super Bowl. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson and were the top seed in the AFC. The Patriots likely will not leap-frog either one of those teams no matter who the next quarterback is.
Again, the Chargers are worth watching if they sign Brady. The Raiders also are interesting, and both teams are sitting there at +1600. If either one lands Brady, they could jump the Patriots.
Patriots’ AFC East odds without Tom Brady
The Patriots have won the AFC East 17 out of 20 times since 2000, including every season since 2009. It’s a one-sided stranglehold that Brady is a responsible for.
How did those odds change? A look at the AFC East.
Odds to win AFC East
Look for these odds to shift toward Buffalo, which gained momentum with the Stefon Diggs trade. That could be a trap. New England is capable of winning the AFC East in 2020.
Tom Brady’s free agency impact on future odds
Brady didn’t just play in nine Super Bowls for the Patriots. He led New England to the AFC championship game 13 times since 2001. That’s 65 percent of the time through 20 seasons.
Last year’s matchup between the Chiefs and Titans was the first time since 2010 that New England was not involved in the AFC championship game.
That is an enormous impact on the NFL, and his departure signifies the end of that one-sided era.
Brady’s departure opens the playing field for the rest of the AFC, and it will be interesting to see how that changes if he stays in the conference. If not, then expect the NFC championship odds to shift. Here are the current NFC odds:
